The effect of the UK’s smokefree generation policy on smoking in pregnancy with Nathan DaviesThe effect of the UK’s smokefree generation policy on smoking in pregnancy with Nathan Davies
Addiction Audio
Dr Tsen Vei Lim talks with Dr Nathan Davies about the UK’s smoke-free generation policy, focusing on its simulated health and economic impact on smoking in pregnancy. The conversation covers how the policy is modelled, expected benefits, public support and the practical and political challenges of putting it into practice.
20:18•13 Nov 2026
Smoke-Free Generation: Modelling the Future of Smoking in Pregnancy
Episode Overview
- The smoke-free generation policy permanently bans tobacco sales to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009, while leaving current adults’ access unchanged.
- Linked simulation and economic models suggest the policy could reduce stillbirths, premature births, low birth weight and childhood asthma in a single birth cohort.
- Findings indicate the policy is cost-saving for the NHS and social care and improves health outcomes, remaining favourable even when implementation costs are heavily increased.
- Survey and qualitative work show broad public support, with many young people framing the policy as offering freedom from addiction rather than limiting their rights.
- Successful implementation depends on strong communication, adequate support for trading standards and retailers, and safeguarding policy from tobacco industry influence.
“"This policy dominates, not having another policy. So essentially, it saves money and it results in better health."”
How do different strategies aid in addiction recovery? This episode of Addiction Audio takes a close look at tobacco control, showing how policy can shape future health, particularly around smoking in pregnancy. Dr Tsen Vei Lim chats with Dr Nathan Davies from the University of Nottingham about his team’s economic assessment of the UK’s smoke-free generation policy.
The policy means that anyone born on or after 1 January 2009 will never legally be sold tobacco, aiming to stop people taking up smoking in the first place while leaving current adult smokers unaffected. Nathan explains how his group used two linked models: one simulating how the ban changes smoking behaviour over time, and another estimating the health and financial impact of reduced smoking in pregnancy.
He breaks it down so you’ll get the gist even if you’re not a statistician, laying out pessimistic, central and optimistic scenarios to show the range of possible outcomes. The numbers are striking. In the central scenario for a single birth cohort, the policy is estimated to prevent stillbirths, premature births and low birth weight, reduce childhood asthma and save money for the NHS and social care. As Nathan puts it, "this policy dominates, not having another policy.
So essentially, it saves money and it results in better health." You’ll also hear about public support for the ban, including how young people often see it as providing "freedom from addiction" rather than restricting their liberty. Nathan and Tsen Vei touch on enforcement costs, political barriers (with New Zealand as a cautionary case), and why strong communication and cross-party backing are so important.
If you’re interested in how addiction policies are tested before they’re rolled out, and what that might mean for future generations, this episode gives plenty to think about. Could long-term tobacco control be one of the most cost-effective tools in protecting maternal and child health?
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